{Member Insights} More Than Ever, Information is Key

The FACC-NY network is composed of a diverse mosaic of talented, experienced, and open-hearted professionals united by a desire to share their knowledge, nurture meaningful connections and succeed professionally. In this new Member Insights series, we invite a guest member to contribute timely and relevant tips for adapting your activities to overcome immediate challenges and plan for the long-term. 

Ruben Nizard, North American Economist, originally joined Coface in 2016, with the Group Economic Research Department located in Bois-Colombes, France. For the last three years, Ruben has been responsible for the Coface country risk analysis of Africa as well as contributing his expertise to the Coface analysis of the oil market and the Coface Political Risk Index.

Coface is a modern and agile company with the most finely meshed international network, Coface is a reference in credit insurance and risk management. With over 70 years of experience as an industry leader, their experts work to the beat of the global economy.

As the year 2020 began, Coface had warned that the main risks to the global economy would actually be of non-economic nature. We had highlighted the political risk and environmental transition risk. However, like everybody else, we were caught off-guard by Covid-19 and had to revise our economic scenario for this year.

As recent data release has demonstrated, this crisis is unprecedented. As governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March, the United States economy came to a standstill. It is reflected in this week’s release of a significant decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020 (-4.8% quarter-on-quarter, annualized rate). This contraction in GDP, which probably marks the beginning of a recession, signals the end of the longest economic expansion cycle in U.S. history. In about six weeks since the lockdown started, more than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, suggesting the unemployment rate could jump to the highest level since the 1930s and the Great Depression from a half a decade low (3.5% in February 2020). In this environment, Coface forecasts that business bankruptcies in the US will rise by 39%. To say the least, Covid-19 promises a challenging outlook for the economy.

These figures might seem like the future is all doom and gloom, but even though it is critical to acknowledge and assess properly the magnitude of the shock, it is also important to look for the silver lining. The first one is that the unprecedented nature of the downturn might also be followed by an unusual and more rapid recovery. Admittedly, the reopening process will be gradual, but it will also offer many new opportunities. Second, even if this crisis is putting all business organizations to a test, it is also creating new ways of working too: more agile and collaborative ways of working could be a positive legacy of the pandemic. Also, many historians argue that previous large-scale epidemics were associated with positive outcomes.

In order to help our clients and the larger public navigate this unprecedented shock to the global economy, Coface has put several actions in place. But, as an economist, I have to put the emphasis on information, which is a core part of Coface DNA. More than ever, Coface is committed to providing relevant information to all companies. For instance, our publications provide detailed and targeted analysis on timely topics. With the crisis, we have stepped-up our social-media communication to inform quickly our audience on the evolution of our economic scenario and on Coface actions. We have organized webinars worldwide in several languages (English, French, German, Portuguese…) to keep all relevant stakeholders informed. Our salesforce and risk underwriters have also been remarkably active to inform our clients and brokers on a case-by-case basis. This is just the tip of the iceberg of all the information products Coface offers and is designed to help businesses make wise credit decisions, no matter their size, sector of activity or geographical location of their buyers.

Interested in learning more about Coface or connecting with Ruben? Click here to contact him directly.