A briefing for the French-American Chamber of Commerce, based on the Fatton · Lyseo · Ovrsea webinar held on April 28th, 2026.
The U.S. freight landscape in 2026 sits at a turning point. Markets are normalizing after several months of disruption, while the tariff environment is in the middle of a complex unwind following the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the IEEPA-based duties. For importers, the priority of the year is no longer absorbing tariff shocks.It is recovering the cash already paid.
A market finding its balance
Energy costs are once again a structural driver. Brent crude is trading back above$100 per barrel after closing 2025 around $94, lifted by Middle East tensions andtighter supply. Bunker fuel surcharges and airline fuel components have followed.
Ocean freight is diverging by lane. The Transpacific has softened: weaker U.S.import demand and excess vessel capacity are weighing on rates, with carriers using blank sailings to slow the decline. The Transatlantic is moving the other way, tightening on capacity adjustments, fuel costs, and persistent congestion innorthern European ports. Asia–Europe remains the most volatile corridor.
Air cargo is the more stable picture. Demand growth is moderate, capacity haslargely recovered, and rates are stabilizing. Growth is concentrated in Asia Pacific(+13%) and North America (+9%). Latin America (+7%) is emerging as thestructural story of the year, driven by nearshoring to Mexico, manufacturingexpansion, and denser regional supply chains. The most active corridors areU.S.↔Mexico, U.S.→Brazil, and Asia→Mexico.
The CBP refund mechanism: CAPE Phase One
The most consequential development for importers is the launch, on April 20th, 2026, of CBP’s new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system. CAPE is the operational answer to the Court of International Trade’s order requiring CBP to refund IEEPA tariffs collected since April 2025. CBP estimates that roughly $120 billion in IEEPA duties can be refunded through Phase One.
The judicial calendar that produced it was tight. On March 4, Judge Eaton (CIT) ruled in Atmus Filtration that CBP must immediately refund IEEPA tariffs. The order was suspended two days later, with CBP given 45 days to build a refund system and required to file weekly progress reports. Atmus Filtration was voluntarily dismissed on April 6. On April 7, Judge Eaton designated Euro-Notions as the new lead case and reissued the universal refund order. CAPE Phase One went live on April 20.
Which entries qualify
Phase One covers three categories: unliquidated entries, entries liquidated withinthe past 80 days, and entries with liquidation suspended, extended, or underreview. For this last group, the IEEPA refund is only issued at the moment of actual liquidation.
Several categories are excluded at this stage: entries flagged for reconciliation, entries designated on a drawback claim, entries covered by a protest, entries not filed in ACE, entries pending liquidation under DOC instructions, and Type 03 (AD/CVD) entries. CBP has indicated that future CAPE phases will progressively extend coverage to most of these.
How the process works
The CAPE Declaration is filed by the Importer of Record or the customs broker, not by counsel. It is a CSV upload through the ACE Portal, capped at 9,999 entries per declaration (multiple declarations are permitted). CBP runs file and entry validations, removes the applicable IEEPA HTSUS Chapter 99 codes from accepted entry summaries, and recalculates duties owed with interest.Unliquidated entry summaries are scheduled to liquidate 45 days from acceptance, and the refund is issued within 60 to 90 days, subject to compliance review.
During that window, CBP performs spot checks on classification, valuation, country of origin, and outstanding bills. A CAPE acceptance is not a waiver.Refunds can be reduced or delayed when the underlying entry has compliance issues.
Refunds are issued electronically via ACH only. Following Executive Order 14247 and CSMS #67644085, CBP has transitioned away from paper checks. Importers must therefore hold an active ACE Portal account with importer sub-account access and valid bank information registered through the ACH Refund Authorization tab.
What CAPE does not solve
Three uncertainties remain even within Phase One.
Scope first. Importers whose IEEPA duties were paid on entries liquidated morethan 80 days ago, or sitting in excluded categories, will need to wait for laterphases or pursue alternative remedies.
Operational risk second. CAPE is a brand-new system being used simultaneously by tens of thousands of importers and by CBP itself. The 60 to 90 day window is an estimate, not a guarantee, and refund amounts may differ from internal expectations once interest and compliance adjustments are applied.
The appellate path third. The U.S. government may still appeal Judge Eaton’s April7 universal-relief order in Euro-Notions. The administration has expressed broadopposition to universal injunctions. An appeal could slow refunds for some entries,though not necessarily all.
Practical priorities for U.S. importers
For French and Franco-American companies importing into the United States, foursteps are time-sensitive in the coming weeks.
1. Confirm ACE Portal access with importer sub-account view, and completeACH Refund Authorization.
2. Map your IEEPA-affected entries by liquidation status. This determines which qualify for CAPE Phase One today, which must wait, and which require alternative procedural routes.
3. Coordinate with your customs broker on the scope, sequencing, and content of CAPE Declarations, including how entries are batched within the 9,999-entry cap.
4. Calibrate cash flow assumptions. Realistic refund timelines are measured in months, not days.
Bottom line
2026 is shaping up to be a year of operational normalization on the freight side and procedural complexity on the customs side. Ocean and air markets offer more visibility than at any point in the last three years. The unwinding of the IEEPA tariff regime, on the other hand, will reward importers who treat CAPE as a structured workstream rather than a one-time filing. Those who do will recover their capital faster, and with fewer surprises.
To go further, you can reach out to sophie.cheymol@fatton.com, dominick.ronan@ovrsea.com, valeria.carbajal@ovrsea.com, abdel@ovrsea.com
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This article is written by an FACC-NY member. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the French-American Chamber of Commerce – New York (FACC-NY).
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